Andre Klynsmith

Economy and Markets

R2.90 a Litre: The September Diesel Increase Is Landing Mid-Contract for Most Hauliers

South Africa's Central Energy Fund mid-month data points to a diesel increase of roughly R2.73 to R2.90 a litre from the start of September. For most transport operators, that lands in the middle of a rate agreement signed when diesel was cheaper.

Economy and Markets

23 August 2026 • 4 min read

The mid-August snapshot from the Central Energy Fund shows diesel under-recoveries of about R2.73 a litre on 500ppm and R2.90 on 50ppm, against petrol under-recoveries of 66 to 77 cents. Final figures land at month-end. Diesel is once again absorbing the bulk of the adjustment, and freight is the sector that pays it.

What the Mid-Month Data Shows

An under-recovery means the current pump price has not covered the landed cost of the fuel, and the shortfall is carried into the next adjustment. On the latest Central Energy Fund reading, diesel is showing under-recoveries in the region of R2.73 a litre for 500ppm and R2.90 for 50ppm. Petrol is running at 66 cents for 93 Unleaded and 77 cents for 95 Unleaded, although analysts expect those to grow toward 80 to 90 cents by the time month-end sums are finalised. Illuminating paraffin is tracking an increase of around R2.14.

These are projections, not the gazetted price. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirms the official adjustment in the final days of August, with new prices effective from the first week of September. But a two-week-old CEF snapshot rarely reverses direction entirely, and operators who wait for the gazette to start their fuel maths lose a fortnight of planning time.

Where This Sits in a Volatile Year

The August adjustment already cut both grades of petrol by 52 cents while pushing diesel up between R1.23 for 50ppm and R1.38 for 500ppm. September now stacks another R2.73 to R2.90 on top of that. The divergence matters: a business planning off headline petrol prices, or off a general consumer inflation number, will consistently understate what is happening to its own cost base.

The driver is the same one that has dominated 2026. International oil markets have been extremely volatile since the conflict involving Iran began in late February, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed to shipping traffic. Brent has settled around the US$90 mark in August, well down from highs near US$126 earlier in the year, but still far above the roughly US$70 that prevailed before the disruption. As SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye put it to Reuters, a return to normal flows through the Strait is "now suddenly without any near-term hopes."

The Contract Problem, Not the Pump Problem

Very few SADC hauliers can pass a September increase through in September. Most freight agreements reset quarterly, some annually, and many cross-border contracts are priced in rand against costs incurred in Namibian dollars, kwacha or pula. An operator running a fleet of thirty long-haul units at 40 litres per 100km across 12,000km a month is looking at roughly R14,000 to R14,500 in additional monthly diesel cost per vehicle-equivalent before any rate relief arrives.

There is some medium-term comfort in the forward view. JP Morgan is forecasting Brent to average around US$86 in the third quarter, easing to US$80 in the fourth and US$78 through 2027. That is a softening trend, not a reversal -- and it argues for fuel clauses indexed to the monthly basic fuel price rather than for betting on a return to 2024 levels.

About the Author
	Andre Klynsmith Entrepreneur & Technology Enthusiast Andre's expertise spans technology, blockchain, transport, and logistics -- with a passion for innovation and driving positive change across industries. info@laaimylorrie.com | laaimylorrie.com