Andre Klynsmith

Mining and Commodities

19 Million Tonnes on the Road: Why South Africa's Manganese and Chrome Exports Still Run on Trucks — and What the Ngqura Bid Means for SADC Mining Freight

Roughly 19 million tonnes of South Africa's manganese and chrome exports still leave the country by road in 2026, even after record export years — and the Ngqura manganese terminal bid process now in the hands of the Manganese Producers Consortium and African Rainbow Minerals is the single biggest test of whether that picture changes by 2028.

Mining and Commodities

26 May 2026 • 5 min read

South Africa exported 26.2 million tonnes of manganese and 23.4 million tonnes of chrome in 2025 — record years for both. The catch: about 10 million tonnes of the manganese and 9 million tonnes of the chrome rolled out by truck, the equivalent of more than 1,700 heavy combinations a day, at a cost premium of around 40% over rail.

A road haulage problem disguised as a mining success

The headline numbers from 2025 looked like a triumph: South Africa hit a record 26.2 million tonnes of manganese exports, up from 22.3 million the year before, and chrome ore exports cleared 23.4 million tonnes. The figures hidden behind that growth tell a different story. Of the manganese tonnage, around 10 million tonnes moved by truck because Transnet's rail line out of the Northern Cape could not absorb it. For chrome, the road share was about 9 million tonnes — more than 826 truck movements per day, at a cost premium close to 40% compared with rail.

For SADC operators, the implication is direct: any disruption on the N12, the N3 or the Ngqura-bound feeder routes hits two of the most strategically important commodity flows in the region. And the trucks doing the heavy lifting are absorbing rising diesel, AARTO, toll and overloading-enforcement costs faster than spot rates can adjust.

Why Ngqura is the inflection point

The planned 16-million-tonne manganese export terminal at Ngqura is the single largest piece of South African bulk infrastructure on the table in 2026. After Transnet opened the formal RFP in April, the Manganese Producers Consortium (MPC) confirmed its intent to bid as a joint-venture partner. African Rainbow Minerals has since joined the consortium-led approach, lining up alongside other South African producers to design, build and operate the new terminal.

The full project is also a rail capacity uplift on the Northern Cape — Ngqura corridor, not just a port. Without the rail leg, the terminal cannot fill — and without the terminal, the rail leg cannot pay for itself. That coupling is what makes the Ngqura bid the closest thing South Africa has to a single-decision moment for its mining freight network.

A SADC-wide ripple effect

The 20-million-tonne private-rail freight target from 2026/27, combined with Transnet's stated ambition to move 250 million tonnes a year by rail by 2029, sits on top of the same infrastructure that today is feeding the manganese and chrome truck flows. If the Ngqura concession lands cleanly — and the rail uplift follows — the SADC operators currently absorbing the road-bound surplus will see real freight contracted off the road over a 24 to 36 month window.

If the concession stalls, the opposite happens. More tonnes go onto trucks already squeezed by record diesel prices, fleet-replacement cost inflation, and the 1 July AARTO national rollout. Either way, the next nine months of the Ngqura process define the freight environment for a large slice of SADC's mining cargo through 2028.

About the Author
	Andre Klynsmith Entrepreneur & Technology Enthusiast Andre's expertise spans technology, blockchain, transport, and logistics -- with a passion for innovation and driving positive change across industries. info@laaimylorrie.com | laaimylorrie.com